Over the Hump?

[aggienaut]

April 6th - 3,324 active cases in Australia (down from 3,338 yesterday), 108 new cases in the last 24 hours. I think yesterday's huge decrease in active cases as from something administrative -- I think all at once they declared all cases older than two weeks to be recovered, but today's decrease of a reasonable amount of cases looks like we may indeed be on the downward side of the slope!!



   Cristina is on duty right now. She reports things are still pretty calm there.

   Not much else to report. Was pretty cold again today.

Comments

[wantedonvoyage.livejournal.com]

That's interesting. I mean, that was the goal of self-isolating, but it seems very soon for you to see such a precipitous drop.

[emo-snal.livejournal.com]

See yesterday's entry for full discussion, but I'm pretty sure the massive declaration of 2,315 recoveries in one day yesterday was based on a changed administrative policy. It looks like they weren't previously automatically marking people recovered but they suddenly realized/decided they could mark everyone who had been diagnosed more than two weeks prior and not died yet as recovered.

Today there were 117 new recoveries listed, if we go back two weeks there were 278 new cases on Marched 23rd, so clearly they haven't marked them all as recovered but maybe all the ones with no symptoms or something.

Who knows maybe if I actually watched the news instead of just crunching numbers in the dark I might know more about their policies ahahahaha.

[wantedonvoyage.livejournal.com]

Right that makes sense... if they're not somewhere on a ventilator by now, they must be out of the woods. I wish we were at that stage, but they're saying we're going to continue to see more for at least a few weeks.

[pondhopper.livejournal.com]

All I know is that from looking at all the comparative data here in Europe, the curve does not behave like that. This may be due to Australia having vast expanses of very low population...it is much more virulent in highly populated areas. More local geographical studies would be interesting.

Also, I am seeing other dashboards that have Australia's number a good bit higher...like on this one:

https://ncov2019.live/data?fbclid=IwAR3WZAw5j1JYCE0_v9qBSB0m1kqYP11XAO0fM_4Zi5QT40bqyqs6MArsuvo

[emo-snal.livejournal.com]

I'll have to look at that dashboard more later, but I do note it has half the recoveries in Australia my source had. I'll have to compare their sources. The main number of infected on that dashboard appears to be the total without subtracting recoveries -- I prefer to watch lists of "active" cases because they'll eventually go down while the running total of course never will. But yeah I'll compare sources later, thanks for bringing this one to my attention (-:

[emo-snal.livejournal.com]

Update, the site I look at also deleted the excess recoveries and is now also showing the 1080! The active number still looks lower than the peak though so we might be over it, but will probably have to wait a few days to say for sure

[nick-101.livejournal.com]

Looking like a light at the end of the tunnel down under.

[carnifinda.livejournal.com]

I sure hope it is the case for Australia. We all need to hear more good news like that!

[adoptedwriter.livejournal.com]

Good news!

[cocojewels.livejournal.com]

Yay! I'm so happy for you guys at least a ray of light in this ocean of dark clouds

[wpadmirer.livejournal.com]

I'm sorry it's getting cold for you. I hate cold weather.

[aerodrome1.livejournal.com]

Fingers crossed on the curve trending down in Australia.

[picosgemeos.livejournal.com]

I hope things continue improve for you guys!