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[personal profile] aggienaut
More on the US's involvement in the Russia-Georgia War:

Apparently the United States military has flown 2,000 (of the 3,000 I believe) Georgian troops from Iraq back to Georgia to take part in the conflict at home. Also despite the recent withdrawel of 2,000 US troops from Georgia where they were doing joint training exercises with the Goergians last month, there are still 150 US personnel among the Georgian military. Since it looks like Russia's brought combat operations to most of the bases in Georgia these personnel are presumably also being bombed.

The Georgians Have Pulled Out Of South Ossetia

Date: 2008-08-11 12:27 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vakratunda.livejournal.com
And requested a cease-fire. The Russians, predictably, have ignored this request and are occupying South Ossetia.

If Mr Putin is as intelligent as I think he is, it stops there, unless the Goergians want to go for round 2. One of the good ways to end a war is to accomplish your military goals and stop at that point.

We'd better hope that this is the case, because the other good way to end a war is to crush your enemy, rendering him incapable of ever harming you again. I don't think the Russians are prepared to do this at this time.

You know, I believe that Russia and the US could fight a non-nuclear war, but I don't think that it is a good idea.



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From: [identity profile] emo-snal.livejournal.com
I don't think the US would risk it. Too afraid that Russia migh really go apeshit and bring out ze bombs.

Yeah it should stop here but, as noted, Russia is ignoring the Georgian withdrawel from the contested area. Additionally they've brought the war to the Black Sea coast, continued bombing sites inland in Georgia, and made at least one incursion into Georgia proper. I don't think they're say, planning on occupying all of Georgia (though I wouldn't 100% rule out them rolling over the whole country), but I think they're gonna take the opportunity to beat up Georgia pretty good.

I'm thinking the war could spread to Abkhazia, the other seperatist region between Russia and Georgia. Georgia is already effectly completely out of Abkhazia but it might be an aim of Russia to beat up Georgia until Georgia is in such a weak position they'll recognize complete independance of both regions as terms of surrender.

Date: 2008-08-11 02:58 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vakratunda.livejournal.com
Well, I don't think that the Russians actually would start throwing nukes around. But you are probably right that the US is worried about it.

The rest of the scenario you outline may be correct. Empires tend not to like to give up bits of their territory.


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Date: 2008-08-11 03:07 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] emo-snal.livejournal.com
Its funny just how bitty the pieces of territoy we're talking about are too. South Ossetia has a population of aroun 100,000. Thats like, as if Redding, CA, (pop 107,741) wanted to become its own country!

Also I wonder if Russia would be content for them to become new countries or would brazenly try to tack them on to Russia.

Date: 2008-08-11 04:02 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] nationelectric.livejournal.com
Thanks for posting updates about this. Yours is the first place I'd heard of it.

Size Does Not Matter

Date: 2008-08-11 04:14 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vakratunda.livejournal.com
In this instance.

That the pieces of the territory once belonged to the empire is sufficient.

How do you think the United States would react if Rhode Island tried to secede? Or Alaska, which has, what, a quarter of a million people in it?

How did the United States, in fact, react when a number of states tried to secede?

I have no idea what the formal arrangement will be for the recovered bits of the Russian Empire. That will be the Reality.



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